Commercial
banks borrow short and lend long and that is one of their basic activities, if
not “the” basic activity performed by banks under the existing banking system.
“Borrow short and lend long” is often referred to as “maturity transformation”
(MT). And MT has plenty of adherents. The following are just some.
1.
Mervyn King, recently retired governor of the Bank of England said in his
"Bagehot to Basel" speech
that "Maturity transformation brings economic benefits..”
2.
Paul Tucker
(former BoE official).
3.
Sir John Vickers: see his paper
entitled “Some economics of bank reform” (section 3, p.5).
The
alleged merit in MT is that it enables bank depositors to share in the
relatively high interest that is earned from making long term loans or
investments, while retaining liquidity. Plus those who supply wholesale money
market loans to banks appear to gain in the same way: those wholesale money
market loans are essentially just large deposits. I’ll refer to both those
types of bank creditor as “depositors” henceforth.
In
fact there are several flaws in that argument, as follows.
1. Shares offer liquidity.
If
MT were banned, there would not be a total loss or absence of liquidity.
Reasons are as follows.
If
a bank were funded just by shares rather than deposits, those shares (like all
shares) would have a degree of liquidity. Indeed my Penguin Dictionary of
Economics starts its definition of the word liquidity thus. “The ease with
which an asset can be exchanged for money. The liquidity of an asset is
determined by the nature of the market on which it is traded. For example an
ordinary share of a British company is liquid because there is a well-organised
market on which shares can be bought and sold….”.
Having
said that, MT does provide what might be called a more “precise” form liquidity
than shares. That is, buying £A of shares does not guarantee you’ll get £A back
when you sell. In contrast, when depositing £A at a bank, the bank promises to
give you £A back at some stage.
2. Central banks can issue any amount of liquidity / money.
A
second flaw in MT is thus. If commercial banks were barred from doing MT, i.e.
if all depositors who wanted their money loaned on had to deposit their money
for an extended period (or buy shares in the relevant bank), that would reduce
the liquidity or money creating activities of commercial banks. And no doubt that
that would reduce aggregate demand and raise unemployment. But that would be
very easily countered simply by having the central bank create and spend
whatever amount of money is needed to bring the economy back up to full
employment. Alternatively, the state could use that extra money created to cut
taxes rather than raise public spending)
Moreover,
central banks can create money at zero real cost. As Milton Friedman put it, in
his book “A Program for Monetary Stability” (1960), “It need cost society
essentially nothing in real resources to provide the individual with the
current services of an additional dollar in cash balances.”
3.
What if central banks didn’t exist?
A
third flaw in MT is thus. Even if there were no central banks, commercial banks
would be able to supply any amount of liquidity / money without extending loans
at the same time, i.e. without engaging in MT. Since central banks obviously do exist, this little section is arguably arcane, so skip it if you like.
Anyway, in a "no central bank" scenario", anyone would be able to have their bank credit their account with any amount of money they like by depositing enough collateral.
Anyway, in a "no central bank" scenario", anyone would be able to have their bank credit their account with any amount of money they like by depositing enough collateral.
Note
that at the point when the collateral is deposited and the account is credited,
no loan has been extended: that is the account holder has not consumed real
goods or services supplied by anyone else.
In
contrast, as soon as the account holder spends £X, that means they’ve been
supplied with £X of goods or services: a loan has been extended.
However,
if the account holder, and similar account holders around the country were
simply looking for day to day transaction money (i.e. liquidity), rather than
long term loans, and say everyone had £Y credited to their account (to take a
simple example) then the balance on everyone’s account would rise above £Y as
often as it fell below £Y. Thus essentially no long term loans would be
involved.
In
short, even if there were just private banks and no central banks, we could
manage just fine without any MT.
So what’s the point of MT?
Well
I’m darned if I know. It does give us liquidity / money, but liquidity / money
can be supplied for free in whatever quantity we need by central banks.
Moreover, central banks perform that function without the risk that is
inevitably involved in MT.
That
is, risk is absolutely inherent to MT: if you accept £B in deposits and lend on
or invest the money, the claim that you can repay the depositor £B is
essentially fraudulent because loans and investments can go wrong. Indeed the
recent crisis was just the umpteenth example that we’d seen throughout history
of MT going wrong. And it went wrong in spectacular style recently: trillions
of dollars of public money was needed to rescue banks their farcical “borrow
short and lend long” confidence trick.
The
above point that risk is absolutely inherent to MT was eloquently made by
Douglas Diamond. In his
abstract and in reference to the liquidity producing characteristics of
commercial banks he says, “We show the bank has to have a fragile capital
structure, subject to bank runs, in order to perform these functions.”
Now
perhaps I’ve missed something, but if central banks can provide us with a form
of money without risks being involved, and if private banks can only provide us
with a form of money by at the same time running the risk of bank runs, I don’t
see the point in letting private banks do any money / liquidity creation.
Why not have taxpayers cover the risks?
Under
the existing system, the risks thrown up by MT are covered to some extent by
taxpayers. But that’s a subsidy of banks, and subsidies misallocate resources,
i.e. reduce GDP as it explains in the introductory economics text books. Or as
the Vickers commission
put it, “The risks inevitably associated
with banking have to sit somewhere, and it should not be with taxpayers”.
So
that’s that idea smacked down.
If MT is so useless, why do banks offer it?
Assume
a totally free market, in particular an economy where governments offer no sort
of lender of last resort facility or bail outs to commercial banks. That’s the
sort of scenario that existed prior to the 1929 crash.
Private
banks in that scenario are in competition with each other, and they are induced
to make depositors all sorts of tempting offers: e.g. that depositors can earn
the interest that comes from long term loans and investments, while retaining
liquidity. That offer is fraudulent because the long term loans can go wrong, which is plain incompatible with offering to return £X for every £X deposited. As Martin Wolf put it "If we were not so familiar with banking we would surely regard it as fraudulent".
But the
fact that some fraud is involved there doesn’t bother private banks. Indeed
almost every advert issued by every firm and corporation on planet Earth is
fraudulent to some extent: almost all adverts over-state the merits of the
product concerned.
Now
if you can make some extra money by sharp practice / fraudulent / semi
fraudulent activities, then why not?
Why not just raise capital requirements?
The
risks involved in MT can of course be reduced by raising bank capital
requirements. But strictly speaking, risks are never TOTALLY REMOVED until banks
are funded JUST BY shares: i.e. the capital ratio is 100%.
As
to the idea that funding banks via shares rather than deposits raises the cost
of funding banks, that idea was demolished by Modigliani and Miller.
So
. . . the risks that private banks run can be totally removed by funding them
entirely by shares. And the costs of doing that are zero, as Modigliani and
Miller showed.
As
to money creation, that can be done at zero cost by central banks. And that all
equals full reserve banking - or at
least one version of full reserve banking (there are actually several
variations on the full reserve idea).
MT
is in check mate.
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