Saturday, 15 June 2019

Does Bill Mitchell back Workfare or not?


In this article, he clearly backs Workfare: he says,

“The existing unemployment benefits scheme could be maintained alongside the JG program, depending on the government’s preference and conception of mutual responsibility.

My personal preference is to abandon the unemployment benefits scheme and free the associated administrative infrastructure for JG operations.

The concept of mutual obligation from the workers’ side would become straightforward because the receipt of income by the unemployed worker would be conditional on taking a JG job.”

 
But in this article he says,

“Further, the MMT Job Guarantee also has nothing in common with so-called ‘workfare’ or ‘work-for-the-dole’ programs that neoliberal-inspired governments have introduced…”

The reality is that any level of “persuasion” or “coercion” can be used on a JG scheme. Personally I have no objection to a finite amount of persuasion: a relatively generous amount of unemployment benefit for the first two months of unemployment, followed by a cut in benefits unless those concerned take a JG job would be OK by me.


Thursday, 13 June 2019

A fundamental flaw in interest rate adjustments.



Summary. The main way central banks cut interest rates is to print money and buy up government debt / bonds. But it can well be argued that government borrowing makes no sense, and thus that there should be no government borrowing. In that case central banks can’t cut interest rates!

______________


Warren Mosler1 and Bill Mitchell2 (the two co-founders of MMT) have argued that government borrowing makes no sense. Milton Friedman3 argued likewise.Plus I argued4 likewise.

Well now, if the above four individuals are right, then central banks will not be able to cut interest rates because the main way CBs cut rates is to print money and buy up government debt!

Of course CBs are able to buy corporate debt. But in the case of QE (at least in the UK, where I live) only a minute proportion of the total debt bought up was corporate as opposed to government debt, and quite right. Reason is that if a CB buys up corporate debt it is taking a commercial risk, and it’s not really to job of CBs to do that.

As distinct from interest rate cuts, there are interest rate increases. An absence of government debt does not stop a CB raising rates: it can wade into the market and offer to borrow at above the going rate, and then not do anything with the money borrowed. CBs in some countries may not actually be allowed to do that at present, but there’s no good reason they shouldn’t.

And that set up, i.e. where a CB can raise rates but can’t cut them does make some sense in that it’s compatible with Friedman’s ideas: Friedman claimed that governments should not borrow except in emergencies. The emergency that Friedman had in mind was war. But another possible emergency is a big outbreak of irrational exuberance which needs to be damped down via various deflationary measures. Tax increases or public spending cuts are one option, but if they proved insufficient, then the latter sort of interest rate increased implemented by a CB might be in order.


So why do governments borrow?

If, as suggested above, there are no good arguments for government borrowing, it is legitimate to ask why such borrowing takes place. The answer is: “political expediency”.

That is, politicians always prefer to fund public spending via borrowing rather than via tax because voters are painfully well aware of tax increases, whereas they tend not to attribute interest rate increases to government borrowing.

David Hume, writing about three hundred years ago, was well aware of the latter point. As he put it, “It is very tempting to a minister to employ such an expedient, as enables him to make a great figure during his administration, without overburdening the people with taxes, or exciting any immediate clamours against himself. The practice, therefore, of contracting debt will almost infallibly be abused, in every government. It would scarcely be more imprudent to give a prodigal son a credit in every banker's shop in London, than to empower a statesman to draw bills, in this manner, upon posterity.” That’s in his essay “Of Public Credit”.

Simon Wren-Lewis5 is clearly aware of that phenomenon: he calls it the “deficit bias”.


What’s the GDP maximising rate of interest?

Having argued that the GDP maximising rate of interest is obtained where the state (government and CB) issue a liability (zero interest yielding base money) but do not pay interest on any of that money, there is actually another point which supports that argument, which is thus.

When governments borrow rather than simply print money and spend it, essentially what they’re doing is saying to themselves, “let’s print and spend, though in order to damp down the inflation that might result from that printing, we’ll borrow back some of the money we printed.”

Now issuing enough base money go give us full employment without exacerbating inflation too much clearly makes sense: it maximises GDP. But to print too much money, and then deal with the inflationary consequences by borrowing some of it back is an obvious nonsense. That is clearly not a strategy which will maximise GDP: reason is that it results in interest rates being artificially high.


Conclusion.

The entire conventional wisdom on government borrowing is nonsense, or at least that’s what I’m claiming!

___________




References.
 

1. See 2nd last paragraph of Mosler’s Huffington article, “Proposals for the banking system.”

2. See Mitchell’s article “There’s no need to issue public debt”.

3.  See Friedman’s article:   “A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability”, American Economic Review. See his para starting “Under the proposal….”.
 

4. Musgrave. See article entitled “The Arguments for a Permanent Zero Interest Rate.”

5. Wren-Lewis. See his article entitled: “Budget deficits, fiscal councils and authoritarian regimes”




Tuesday, 11 June 2019

Should central banks be socially concerned? – continued.



On 5th June I criticised on this blog a letter (organised by Positive Money) from ninety academics in The Guardian which argued for the Bank of England to do more about climate change and other social issues like inequality.

So it was nice to see an article in the Financial Times the next day (6th June) also criticising the Guardian letter. The article was by Tony Yates (former economics prof in Birmingham, UK and former BoE economist).

Yates’s article was followed by an FT article by Positive Money people defending their Guardian letter. I’ll run thru the Yates and PM article in the paragraphs below, dealing with some but certainly not all the points in those articles. 

Yates’s first point is that “Climate change mitigation is to be tackled by a combination of legislation, taxes and subsidies, imposed by an elected central government.” That comes to much the same as my point on 5th June that GOVERNMENT has far more powers to raise the cost of fossil fuels via subsidies (and/or subsidise renewable forms of energy) than central banks.

Positive Money’s response to that is straight out of la-la land, far as I can see. They say “Some of the most important levers which would allow us to address the challenges of our age sit outside the government’s control. For example, the UK will only be able to reach net zero emissions by 2050 by dramatically stemming the flow of finance towards fossil fuels.”

So how is the BoE supposed to “stem that flow”? To illustrate, if a heavy fossil fuel user wants to issue shares or bonds to fund its activities, the BoE has no powers to prevent that. Of course the BoE could clamp down on bank lending to heavy fossil fuel users, but if heavy fossil fuel users’ access to banks is restricted, that isn't much of a problem for them because, as just intimated, heavy fossil fuel users can issue shares or bonds instead.


Financial Stability.

Yates next point (in his next para) is that financial stability risks emanating from climate change (which the Guardian letter makes much of) are small compared to other financial risks (trade wars, Brexit, etc). I didn’t make that point on 5th June, though I have made the point in earlier articles on this blog.


Politics.

Yates next point (his next para) is that asking the BoE to do something about climate change is to politicise the BoE. I.e. it would be OK to try to persuade government to get the BoE to do something about climate change, but it’s definitely not OK to try to get the BoE to act independently of government in that regard. I also made that point on 5th June.


Inequality.

Next, Yates deals with the claim in the Guardian letter that monetary policy can influence inequality, thus the BoE should pay more attention to the equality changing effects of its policies. (Perhaps the most popularly cited instance of that is the way that QE has allegedly boosted asset prices, and thus made the rich richer.) Yates answers that by pointing out that inequality in the UK over the last ten years or so has been little different to the 1990s.

Plus I particularly like this para of Yates’s: “Monetary and financial policies probably have consequences for lots of things: the crime rate; public physical and mental health. But we don’t task the Governor with those responsibilities. We have the Department for Health and the Home Office.”


Do Positive Money and the 90 academics understand Pareto Efficiency?

The latter “ignore the side effects” idea is very much what so called “Pareto Efficiency” is all about. PE, to quote the first sentence of a Wikipedia article on the subject reads: “Pareto efficiency or Pareto optimality is a state of allocation of resources from which it is impossible to reallocate so as to make any one individual or preference criterion better off without making at least one individual or preference criterion worse off.”

Essentially that boils down to saying that if GDP or output per head can be improved by some measure, then the fact that that improvement makes a particular set of people worse off is irrelevant, because those worse off individuals can always be compensated out of tax taken from those who have benefited, with the net result that everyone is better off.

E.g. if a central bank thinks an interest rate adjustment will cut unemployment, the CB should go for it. Any inequality increasing effects can easily be dealt with via the existing tax and social security system.

The alternative is for CB committees to get involved in liaising with any number of worthy committees concerned about equality. The bureaucracy there doesn’t bear thinking about. 


Thursday, 6 June 2019

Stalwart leftie manages to make George Osborne look progressive by comparison.


A significant proportion of lefties spend so much time admiring what they believe to be their moral superiority to the political right that they forget to actually think. The result is that they advocate nonsense policies.

A classic example is the recent article in Tribune (a long established UK left wing periodical) by James Meadway criticising MMT. His third last paragraph claims, “If Labour wishes to make permanent changes — including permanent increases in public funding for public services — we must establish clear lines of tax funding for day-to-day spending, and set out a path for future deficits to follow.”

Well if you remember, that “path for future deficits to follow” was very much the policy adopted by George Osborne, the UK Tory Party finance minister. To be exact, the farcical Osborne “we’re going to cut the deficit” story was briefly as follows.

George Osborne 2010:
“We will eliminate the deficit by 2015.
Tory Manifesto, 2015, p.9:
“We will eliminate the deficit by b2017.”
Osborne Budget speech, 8th July 2014:
“We will eliminate the deficit by 2020.”
Tory manifesto, 2017, p.64:
“We will eliminate the deficit by 2025.”

If James Meadway’s “path” is anything like Osborne’s, then Meadway’s “path” is a joke.

What’s wrong with the latter “path” is that it’s plain impossible to predict what future deficits (or surpluses) need to be. A recession could hit in two years’ time, in which case a larger than normal deficit will be needed. Alternatively, an outbreak of irrational exuberance in two years’ time is possible, in which case it could be desirable for government to rein in excess demand by running a surplus.

As Keynes argued in the 1930s and as MMT has argued more recently, the deficit simply needs to be whatever minimises unemployment without exacerbating inflation too much. Whether that’s a large and all-time record size deficit, or no deficit at all is totally immaterial.

Alternatively, if Meadway’s “path” consists of some ideas or principles which can be used to determine the size of the deficit rather than trying to predict the actual size of the deficit in pounds or dollars, he doesn’t explain what those principles are. But never mind: all is not lost! The Labour Party did actually publish a set of principles for determining the deficit quite recently: that’s the Labour Party’s new so called “fiscal rule” (1). But Meadway seems to be unaware of that document.

The basic principle behind Labour’s fiscal rule is that interest rate cuts should be used to impart stimulus when interest rates are significantly above zero, while fiscal stimulus should be used when interest rates are at or near zero.

And what do you know? That’s not a hundred miles or anywhere near a hundred miles from MMT! To be exact, the founder of MMT, Warren Mosler, advocated a permanent zero interest rate policy (2). In other words under Labour’s new fiscal rule, interest rates bump along just above zero, while according to Mosler, interest rates should be kept permanently at zero.


Having said that, the first two sentences of Labour’s fiscal rule do rather contradict the small print: that is the first two sentences claim there should be a target for debt and deficit reduction. However it’s pretty obvious that those two sentences were inserted to placate the economically illiterate electorate and economically illiterate newspaper economics commentators who are under the illusion that national debts are like household debts in that they need to be repaid at some point.

Certainly Simon Wren-Lewis, who authored Labour’s fiscal rule, said he had nothing to do with those first two sentences. 

_____________


References.
1. “Labour’s fiscal rule is progressive” by Simon Wren-Lewis.
2. “The Natural Rate of Interest is Zero”, Journal of Economic Issues.



Wednesday, 5 June 2019

Dozens of academics sign a letter to the Guardian. This should be entertaining.


When dozens of academics sign a letter to the Guardian, there’s a good chance the letter contains a fair amount of nonsense. And so it is with this letter published yesterday. Title of othe letter is "Next Bank of England governor must serve the whole of society."
.
Their first point is thus.

“First, environmental breakdown is the biggest threat facing the planet. The next governor must build on Mark Carney’s legacy, and go even further to act on the Bank’s warnings by accelerating the transition of finance away from risky fossil fuels.”

Well now for the woolly minded that seems to make sense. After all environmental breakdown is a serious issue, plus the Bank of England is a powerful organisation, thus it must follow that there’s much that the BoE can do about environmental breakdown, surely?

Well no actually. That’s false logic.

The most the BoE can do is implement some sort of bias against industries which are into fossil fuel consumption when it comes to QE: i.e. buying corporate bonds. But there are several problems there.

1. QE has only been in operation for a small proportion of the time since WWII, and has always been viewed as a temporary measure.

2. The actual number of corporate bonds bought by the BoE relative to the number of UK government bonds bought as part of QE has been minute. The equivalent proportion for the Fed was A BIT higher, but not much higher.

3.  The fact of the BoE buying the bonds of corporations A & B while not buying those of X & Y does not  have a significant effect on the costs of funding those corporations. At a wild guess, having the BoE buy the bonds of corporation Z might cut the costs of funding the corporation by about one percent.

4. The latter ridiculously small change in the cost of funding  corporations is near irrelevant to the powers that government has when it comes to discouraging fossil fuel consumption or subsidising solar and wind power. That is, there is in principle absolutely no limit to the size of tax that government can place on fossil fuels or the size of the subsidy it can offer for renewable forms of energy.


5. The decision to favour non fossil fuel consuming industries is very much a political decision, and that is not a decision for a central bank. Thus the authors of the Guardian letter really ought to be pestering politicians to instruct the BoE to implement an "anti fossil  fuel" policy: they should not be trying to get the BoE do implement that policy without reference to politicians.
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Inequality.

The next point in the letter is thus.

“Second, rising inequality, fuelled to a significant extent by monetary policy, has contributed to a crisis of trust in our institutions. The next governor must be open and honest about the trade-offs the Bank is forced to make, and take a critical view of how its policies impact on wider society.”

Well presumably that’s a reference to the fact that QE has boosted asset prices, which in turn has obviously benefited “asset owners” i.e. the well-off. But there is a problem there, which is that it can well be argued that the entire government  debt should be QE’d!!!
 

To be more exact, Milton Friedman and the two co-founders of MMT (Warren Mosler and Bill Mitchell) have argued for a “zero government borrowing” regime. Obviously an initial effect of that is to boost asset prices, but that effect can always be nullified by extra tax on the well-off and/or more social security and similar for the less well-off.

Indeed, that’s a nice example of so called “Pareto efficiency” (an idea thought up by the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto). Basically a policy is Pareto efficient if it increases GDP (or output per hour), and nothing else matters. In particular, if one group of people are made worse off by a policy, that doesn’t matter, because tax  and or the social security system can be used to ensure that that group is not adversely affected.

At least that’s my definition of Pareto efficiency. If you want to be sure you have a grasp of the idea, obviously you’d be advised to look at a few dictionaries of economics and text books.


Bank lending.

The letter’s third point is thus.

“Third, the UK economy is increasingly unbalanced and skewed towards asset price inflation. Banks pour money into bidding up the value of pre-existing assets, with only £1 in every £10 they lend supporting non-financial firms. The next governor must seriously consider introducing measures to guide credit away from speculation towards productive activities.”

Well the claim that “Banks pour money into bidding up the value of pre-existing assets..” is presumably a reference to the fact that a large proportion  of bank lending goes to mortgages applied for by people who are buying EXISTING houses rather than NEW houses.

Well my answer to that is: “What else are banks supposed to do?”

Firstly it is perfectly reasonable for a bank to demand security or “collateral” when granting a loan. Or do you seriously want the bank which holds your money to lend to drunks lying in the gutter who have no assets? If so, you’re asking for your money to be flushed down the drain pretty quickly.

To be more realistic, do you really want your bank to engage in so called “NINJA” mortgages? NINJA stands for “No Income, No Job or Assets”. It was exactly the latter sort of lending that helped give us the 2007/8 bank crisis.

Second, as you may or may not have noticed, houses normally last a hundred years or more. That inevitably means that a large majority of those buying a home, buy an EXISTING house, rather than one that has just been built.



Financial markets.

The final sentence of the letter reads, "We need a governor genuinely committed to serving the whole of society, not just financial markets". Well actually one of the main decisions taken by central banks every month is deciding whether to implement more (or less) stimulus in the form of interest rate adjustments, QE or whatever. And the purpose of that is always to minimise unemployment without exacerbating inflation too much.


Well now minimising unemployment is very much a form of "serving the whole of society, not just financial markets" isn't it?

Tuesday, 4 June 2019

Silly article published by the Adam Smith Institute on MMT.


The article is entitled “Stop trying to use monetary policy for your ideological whims” and is by Joakim Book. I left a less than flattering comment after the article as follows.

Joakim Book’s article is nonsense, like many other recent articles on MMT. MMT does not advocate, to quote Joakim Book’s first paragraph, that “worrying about the deficit or government spending is unnecessary”: that is MMTers have repeated till they are blue in the face that inflation puts a limit to the size of the deficit.

What MMT however DOES CLAIM, which is a bit different to the conventional wisdom, is that the size of the deficit and debt PER SE are irrelevant. I.e. MMT says (much as Keynes said) that the deficit should simply be whatever brings full employment without excess inflation. That’s in stark contrast to the ludicrous George Osborne policy on deficits which consisted of repeatedly promising to abolish the deficit in about three years’ time, only to find he COULDN’T reduce it: a policy being copied by the Labour Party incidentally.

In contrast to the above technical point about deficits, MMTers (like Keynes) do tend to be left of centre and do advocate a number of types of public spending increase, like the Green New Deal, which Joachim Book mentions. However it’s not just left of centre people who claim something needs to be done about climate change: plenty of right of centre people think likewise. Indeed, a large majority of scientists agree that we need to do something, and fast.

Joakim Book then displays his ignorance of this whole subject even more starkly when he claims that Positive Money’s  “agenda has always been more narrowly focused on advocating for “a fair, democratic and sustainable economy” – predominantly through the use of monetary reform along MMT lines.”

Well the big problem there is that MMTers do not have much to say on the subject of “monetary reform”!!!! Joakim Book might as well have accused the Archbishop of Canterbury of having strong views on the design of Formula One racing cars!!!

It’s true that Warren Mosler (founder of MMT) does have views on bank reform. But that’s hardly surprising given that he runs a bank. But apart from about one article by Mosler on that subject, MMTers are pretty well silent on “monetary reform”.

Monday, 27 May 2019

The senior economists who didn’t know government can print money.


On February 14, 2010, the Sunday Times published a letter by twenty of the World’s leading economists, which is reproduced below under the heading “The Letter”. 

Essentially the letter claims there is a problem with stimulus (of the sort used to combat the recession which started with the 2007/2008 bank crisis). The alleged problem is that governments must borrow in order to obtain the money for stimulus and that there is a limit to the amount of borrowing that governments can do before creditors get worried about the debtor government’s intention or ability to repay the debt. Those creditors, so the letter claims, are likely to demand higher rates of interest as the debt grows.

Well it’s certainly reasonable to be concerned about a micro-economic entity’s intention or ability to repay a debt as the debt expands. A micro-economic entity is for example a household or small/medium size firm.

However, government is a macro-economic entity, and it is always dangerous to extrapolate from the micro-economic to the macro-economics.

In particular, the idea that stimulus has to be funded via borrowing in a country which issues its own currency is plain simple delusional clap-trap: as Keynes explained in the early 1930s, a country which issues its own currency can escape a recession simply by printing money and spending it (and/or cutting taxes).

It beggars belief that twenty of the world’s leading economists are unaware of the latter point, but it seems that they are  – or at least that they were at the time of writing the letter. Certainly the letter says nothing about money printing or money creation.


Central banks.

Incidentally, and in reference to the above idea that government can print money, it should be said that normally it is actually central banks which do the money printing. However central banks are little more than an arm of government: an arm which has varying degrees of independence depending on the country concerned. Thus a central bank is a government department to all intents and purposes.

Moreover there is absolutely no reason why the job of money printing cannot be given to some other government department. And in fact the UK Treasury engaged in some money printing at the start of WWI: it printed so called “Bradbury” pound notes.


Is money printing a panacea?

Of course any of those twenty economists could answer Keynes’s money printing point by claiming that resorting to money printing could lead to a loss of confidence in the country concerned in much the same way as increased borrowing might lead to a loss of confidence.

To be exact, and in connection with the latter point, the twenty economists claim “…there is a risk that a loss of confidence in the UK’s economic policy framework will contribute to higher long-term interest rates and/or currency instability, which could undermine the recovery.”

Well as regards higher long term interest rates, those would not kick in the day after the relevant government announced its intention to implement money printing: reason is that the rate of interest paid on a large majority of debt issued by governments around the world is fixed at the time that debt is issued. Put another way, if creditors were indeed to demand higher rates, and succeeded in getting them, that would only apply to debt which matured and became due for roll-over. And that point is particularly relevant for the UK (where I live): UK debt has an average time to maturity at least double that of the US.

Plus this “twenty deluded economists” affair is very much a UK affair  in that the Sunday Times is a UK newspaper, and most of the signatories to the letter were British.

But suppose creditors do in fact demand higher rates of interest: in the case of a government which issues its own currency, there is no Earthly reason for the relevant government to actually pay those higher rates: the alternative is simply to print money, pay off the creditors, and tell them to go away. Indeed that was pretty much what several governments did a few years after the letter, and in the form of QE. And contrary to the warnings issued by yet more idiot economists, hyperinflation did not ensue.

So that’s dealt with the letter’s “higher long-term interest rates” point mentioned a couple of paragraphs above.


Currency instability.

The other claim in the letter was that “currency instability” could result from excessive national debts, so had it been put to the twenty economists that money printing is an alternative to debt they might have claimed that currency instability would result from money printing just as much as from allegedly excessive national debts.

And to bolster their argument, the twenty economists might have cited Robert Mugabe, who like several national leaders in earlier decades and centuries, resorted to the printing press with excess inflation being the result.

Well the simple answer that is that money printing will only cause excess inflation if the demand that results from that money printing is excessive: i.e. if aggregate demand reaches a level such that the country’s employers cannot meet that demand.

Thus it is certainly not true that money printing automatically results in excess inflation, as was demonstrated (to repeat) by QE a few years after the letter.

As to the “currency  instability” which the twenty economists were concerned about, there again, they could claim that money printing might result in just as much currency instability.

Well first, while it’s possible that foreign exchange traders might take a dim view of a government which announces it intends printing money and those traders might mark the currency down relative to other currencies,  it’s a bit hard to see why “currency instability”, i.e. a currency gyrating up and down, would result.

As for the currency being marked down, that is not really a big deal: currencies regularly rise and fall by 5% or so. Plus when Japan (one of the first countries to go for QE after 2,000) announced its intention to implement QE in early 2001, there was no obvious effect on the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. To be exact, the Yen dropped about 5% over the next year, but then strengthened about 10% over the next two years.

Plus the whole purpose of creating new money and spending it is to raise demand, and an entirely predictable result of a rise in demand, all else equal, is a finite deterioration in a country’s balance of payments and a consequent fall in the value of its currency relative to other currencies, which in turn ought to rectify the latter balance of payments problem.


The incompetent twenty.

And note that those signing the letter included many individuals right at the top of the economics profession. For example Sir John Vickers was one of the signatories. He chaired the so called “Vickers report” which was the main official UK government response to the 2007/8 bank crisis. That doesn’t induce me to have much faith in Sir John’s ideas on bank reform. (For a guide to some of the mistakes made by the Vickers commission, Google “ralphonomics” and “Vickers”.)

Another signatory was Olivier Blanchard who at the time was the IMF’s chief economist. But as I’ve explained in earlier articles on this blog, the IMF is clueless. And Bill Mitchell (who like me supports MMT) regards the IMF as being so incompetent that we’d all be better off it was closed down. 

Another signatory was Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economist. Again, I have previously dealt with his incompetence.


The economics profession is a gentlemans’ club.

So why does this incompetence persist? Well I suggest Adam Smith gave the answer long ago when he said “People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.”

In other words if economist A spots incompetence by economist B, A will normally not make too much of a song and dance about it: that would bring the profession as a whole into disrepute, which is not in the interests of A.


Why revisit a letter written in 2010?

For the benefit of any readers wondering what the point is of digging up a letter in a newspaper almost ten years later, the first reason is that of course economic history is always interesting. But more particularly some of the signatories of the letter have been trying to claim recently that they never opposed stimulus or money printing in any shape or form.

But that’s just an example of a well-known and predictable phenomenon: first they criticise you, then they question you, then they copy you. If I were in their shoes, I’d probably do the same, cad and rotter that I am!


The Letter.

"It is now clear that the UK economy entered the recession with a large structural budget deficit. As a result the UK’s budget deficit is now the largest in our peacetime history and among the largest in the developed world.

"In these circumstances a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan would make a sustainable recovery more likely.

"In the absence of a credible plan, there is a risk that a loss of confidence in the UK’s economic policy framework will contribute to higher long-term interest rates and/or currency instability, which could undermine the recovery.

"In order to minimise this risk and support a sustainable recovery, the next government should set out a detailed plan to reduce the structural budget deficit more quickly than set out in the 2009 pre-budget report.

"The exact timing of measures should be sensitive to developments in the economy, particularly the fragility of the recovery. However, in order to be credible, the government’s goal should be to eliminate the structural current budget deficit over the course of a parliament, and there is a compelling case, all else being equal, for the first measures beginning to take effect in the 2010-11 fiscal year.

"The bulk of this fiscal consolidation should be borne by reductions in government spending, but that process should be mindful of its impact on society’s more vulnerable groups. Tax increases should be broad-based and minimise damaging increases in marginal tax rates on employment and investment.

"In order to restore trust in the fiscal framework, the government should also introduce more independence into the generation of fiscal forecasts and the scrutiny of the government’s performance against its stated fiscal goals.

"Tim Besley, Sir Howard Davies, Charles Goodhart, Albert Marcet, Christopher Pissarides and Danny Quah, London School of Economics;
Meghnad Desai and Andrew Turnbull, House of Lords;
Orazio Attanasio and Costas Meghir, University College London;
Sir John Vickers, Oxford University;
John Muellbauer, Nuffield College, Oxford;
David Newbery and Hashem Pesaran, Cambridge University;
Ken Rogoff, Harvard University;
Thomas Sargent, New York University;
Anne Sibert, Birkbeck College, University of London;
Michael Wickens, University of York and Cardiff Business School;
Roger Bootle, Capital Economics;
Bridget Rosewell, GLA and Volterra Consulting