Christopher Pissarides, economics
Nobel laureate, has an idea for helping with the deficit and national debt. It’s
to tie specific tranches of national debt to the infrastructure and other assets
that the latter debt finances, and then not count the relevant sums as “deficit”.
Well clearly a bond is more
attractive to bond buyers if there are specific assets backing the bond than if
there aren’t. But the first problem with the above idea is that every country’s
national debt is to some extent backed by government owned assets
ANYWAY!!! And those paper tigers, the
bond vigilantes know it. So formally tying specific bonds to specific assets
won’t make a huge difference.
Put another way, regardless of
whether specific bonds are tied to specific government owned assets, any
country always has the option of flogging off its infrastructure in order to
get out of difficulties.
Second, a country has to be in a dire
state before it starts flogging off its infrastructure so as to get out of
difficulties. Greece is an example. And the bonds of such a country will
probably have lost a significant proportion of their value LONG BEFORE the “flog
off” takes place. Greece again is an example.
In short, bond holders with their
heads screwed on will pay much more attention to a country’s OVERALL economic
performance than to whether its bonds are backed by specific assets.
To illustrate, suppose a bank
manager has the choice of lending to two firms. One has a healthy order book
and is making decent profits. The second is approaching bankruptcy but can
offer assets to back a loan. Why would the bank manager bother with the second?
Going thru bankruptcy proceedings is costly and time consuming.
And to add insult to injury,
suppose foreign creditors do take over infrastructure, will residents of the
problem country actually pay to use the infrastructure? Not if German built
motorways in Greece are anything to go by: Greeks have simply torn down the
toll booths and refused to pay.
Third, a country which issues its
own currency and borrows in that currency cannot possibly fail to repay loans
and for the simple reason that it can print any amount of money any time it
wants. The fact that specific bonds are backed by specific assets has absolutly
no bearing on that ability to “print and repay”. Of course if a country has to
resort to IRRESPONSIBLE printing in order to repay, then inflation will take
off, and bond holders will lose out (in “real” or “inflation adjusted” terms).
And unfortunately, having those bonds backed by specific physical assets won’t
make a blind scrap of difference to that inflationary loss.
And that’s just another reason why
bond holders who know what they are doing look (to repeat) at a country’s
OVERALL ECONLOMIC PERFORMANCE, not whether specific bonds are backed by
specific assets.
Government borrowing is all
nonsense anyway.
And finally, the great and the
good, plus finance ministers, plus economics text books, etc etc all convey the
message that government borrowing makes some sort of sense. Actually government
borrowing is a big load of hogwash. Milton Friedman said so here. Warren Mosler
said so here (2nd last paragraph). Claude Hillinger said so here(p.3). And I said so here.
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