George Osborne, the UK’s
finance minister, and the plonkers who advise him have discovered or should I
say re-discovered the fact that the government / central bank machine can print
and spend money. Er….yes. Keynes pointed that out in the 1930s.
In fact many Kings and
emperors since the world began have realised they have the power to print money
and sometimes they’ve been tempted to print excessive quantities with Robert
Mugabe being just a recent example.
Anyway, this UK Treasury
publication tells us that “it is theoretically possible for monetary
authorities to finance fiscal deficits through the creation of money.”
Theoretically possible???
The UK government / central bank machine has been printing money like there’s
no tomorrow over the last two years. Where have Osborne and his advisors been
during that time? On planet Mars perhaps.
To be more exact, the UK
government (along with the US and other governments) have engaged in “Quantitative
Easing” (presumably unbeknown to Osborne). Anyway, let’s run through the
process via which QE equals money printing.
First, government borrows
£X, gives bonds to those it has borrowed from and then spends the money. Then
(and this is the QE bit) the central bank prints money and buys those bonds.
Now that all comes to the same thing as the government / central bank machine
simply printing money and spending it (and/or cutting taxes). So what’s all
this about “theoretical possibilities” we get from the Treasury?
Now you could argue that
that doesn’t exactly equal printing money and spending it since at the end of
the roundabout process explained in the paragraph just above, the central bank
is left holding bonds. And assuming the CB holds those bonds till maturity,
then the Treasury in theory is supposed to give the CB suitable dollops of
money. But suppose the Treasury just refuses. Suppose the Treasury just told
the CB to throw those bonds on the fire? What would be the REAL ECONOMIC
IMPACT?
ABSOLUTELY NONE !!!!!
The CB wouldn’t go bust or anything. All that’s going on there is
shuffling bits of paper, or should I say throwing bits of paper on the fire.
There is no REAL IMPACT. No effect on the real economy. And what’s really important here is the real
impact. Whether particular bits of paper get burned or not is irrelevant.
Or put another way, until
such time as those bonds reach maturity, the REAL EFFECT of the above “roundabout”
money printing process is exactly the same as government simply printing money
and spending it and/or cutting taxes.
Next, the Treasury paper
tells us (in reference to money printing) that “Adair Turner, Chairman of the Financial
Services Authority, has suggested this could be a tool to use in extreme
circumstances.”
Sorry. Wrong again. To
repeat, as Keynes pointed out, funding a deficit via printed money is a
perfectly good alternative to funding it via borrowed money. No need to mention
the word “extreme”.
Moreover, and possibly
unknown to the UK Treasury, Milton Friedman advocated a system decades ago
under which the government / central bank machine simply printed and spent
money or cut taxes when stimulus was needed. Positive Money and other groups
(e.g. MMTers) advocate the same policy. So there is nothing “extreme” about the
idea.
(h/t to Ann
Pettifor.)
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