Summary.
Bank of England staff (Messers McLeay, Radio and
Thomas) have just published an article entitled Money Creation in the Modern
Economy. The article claims that the textbook view of banks (i.e. that they accept
savers' money and lend that on to borrowers) is flawed. Rather, so they claim,
banks extend loans first, which in turn creates deposits.
The article itself gets near to contradicting
itself when it says that when a bank extends a loan, that will lead “..other
things equal, to increased inflationary pressure..”. And that in turn means the
central bank has to raise interest rates, which lo and behold, will cut
lending. Ergo, if the economy is at capacity, a bank cannot make a loan worth
$X unless someone has saved up $X. Thus the textbooks, which the article
criticises, do have a point.
That apart, the article is decent bit of work.
__________
On p.1 the BoE article says “Whenever a bank makes
a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank
account, thereby creating new money”. And on p.2 they say, “This article
explains how, rather than banks lending out deposits that are placed with them,
the act of lending creates deposits — the reverse of the sequence typically
described in textbooks.”
And in much the same vein, the article says “The
reality of how money is created today differs from the description found in
some economics textbooks. Rather than banks receiving deposits when households save and then lending them out, bank lending
create deposits.”
However, the article itself casts doubt on the
above “money creation” idea. On page 7 the article rightly says that the above
new money created by new lending can be immediately destroyed if the recipient
of the new money uses that money to repay a debt owed to a commercial bank.
Alternatively, and as the article puts it, the new
money “may continue to be passed between different households and companies
each of whom may, in turn, increase their spending. This process — sometimes
referred to as the ‘hot potato’ effect — can lead, other things equal, to
increased inflationary pressure on the economy.” Again, quite right.
Now if the latter inflationary effect does
materialise, obviously government and/or central bank will attempt to negate
that inflationary effect. For example, the CB might raise interest rates which
is supposed to reduce borrowing and lending. Indeed, if the latter reduction
exactly equalled to above alleged new money creation, then there’d be no net
inflationary effect and no net money creation!
To summarise, if an economy is at capacity and
a commercial bank extends a loan worth £X, that will not be inflationary if someone
else brings about an equal and opposite “anti-inflationary” effect by saving up
£X. In effect, then, the “economics textbooks” which the article criticises,
are not entirely wrong. That is, assuming an economy is at capacity and in
equilibrium, then as the textbooks claim, if non-bank entity saves £X, that
enables some other non-bank entity to borrow £X.
However, commercial banks do create money.
But that’s not to say that the notion that
commercial banks create money is completely invalid. In particular, if
commercial banks set up in what had hitherto
been a barter economy, those banks’ initial activity would consist of accepting
collateral from those wanting a stock of money, and crediting the accounts of
the latter individuals.
So long as those individuals simply wanted a float
of £Y (with the actual balance in their accounts rising above £Y as often as it
fell below £Y), then no long term lending would take place. And that activity
obviously constitutes money creation.
Likewise, given real economic growth, and assuming
the private sector’s desire for “floats” rather than genuine loans expands in
line with real economic growth, then commercial banks would create money in
line with that economic growth.
Another flaw.
Another flaw in the idea that extending loans
creates money is as follows (or perhaps this is just another way of making the
points made in the above paragraphs)
A loan is the transfer of wealth from one entity to
another, the intention of both parties being that the wealth is returned at
some point, and with the initial recipient of the wealth normally paying
interest to the donor.
Now in the above mentioned “creation of floats”
scenario, banks do not transfer wealth to so called borrowers. Reason is (to
repeat) that assuming we’re talking about genuine floats, the actual balance in
“float owners’” accounts will rise above the above mentioned £Y as often as it
falls below.
In contrast, in the case of a genuine loan
intermediated by commercial banks, and assuming the economy is at capacity,
then a bank cannot extend a loan worth £Z unless someone saves £Z, as explained
above. And in that case, clearly no money creation takes place.
Ergo, extending loans does not create money.
Is commercial banking inherently inflationary?
A separate and interesting question is that as to
whether in the absence of a gold standard and absent the above mentioned
control of inflation exercised by central banks and governments, the money
creation activities of commercial banks would lead to excess inflation. I haven’t
got my head round that one yet!
Do you know of any bank that can make loans without having any money in reserves? If you find one, then I will accept that banks can create money by making loans. If they need reserves and the loans are backed by reserves, then reserves create loans. These economist sound like cranks.
ReplyDeleteNo, they need reserves. But if a central bank wants to maintain the overnight/fed funds/bank rate at its target rate (as is the policy objective of all sovereign central banks), the central bank makes any necessary accommodation to the quantity of reserves in the system so that target rate is met. See empirical studies by Scott Fullwiler and others.
DeleteReserve requirements are enforced after the loan is made, not before.
DeleteDuring the accounting period at time T, you lend regardless of your current reserves. Then, during the accounting period at time T+1 you must get enough reserves to match the lending you made at time T.
You get those reserves either from other banks or from your CB (which cannot refuse to provide them).